American moves are Relentless in recent weeks to reach a permanent ceasefire in both the cities of Sirte and Jufrah.
The US administration has intensified its contacts with all Libyan parties, the last of which was between the US ambassador to Libya, “Richard Norland”, the President of the Presidency Council, Fayez Al-Sarraj, and the Minister of Interior, Fathi Bashagha; To push the political process forward, find a solution to disarm both Sirte and Al Jufra, which are occupied by Russian Wagner mercenaries, and to resume oil exports.
On the other hand, the military reinforcements of “Wagner” mercenaries are still arriving in the oil crescent, Sirte and Al Jufra, respectively.
Press sources published photos and video clips for the construction of fortifications and trenches on the roads of Sirte, Al Jufra and Jaarif , and the installation of new Russian “S-300” air defense systems in the Ras Lanuf area with the arrival of offensive military reinforcements, according to the latest AFRICOM report in this respect.
feebleness and indecision
In this regard, writer and political analyst Mohamed Ghemim believes that the Americans are still dealing with the Libyan issue with some hesitation for many reasons, on top of which is the nature of the Trump administration, which is aligned with authoritarian regimes such as those in the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which is the basis of the problem in Libya.
In a statement to Arraed, Ghemim added that America has succeeded in taking advantage of Turkey’s presence in Libya and working in coordination with it because of the strong relations the Turks enjoy with the Russians, especially since the world is heading towards political conflicts with diplomatic stances and not military confrontations, as he put it.
Ghemim recalled what was published in the American press about the US Congress’s Foreign Policy Committee’s endeavor to pass a law imposing sanctions on those obstructing the solution in Libya, in addition to the criminal cases brought before the US judiciary against Haftar as an American citizen, all of this will help weaken Haftar and thwart gambling on him.
Ghemim expected that the White House would be active in its endeavors and contacts with the Turkish ally to support its electoral position first, and then to preserve the interests of American oil companies, which would not have priority if the Russians settled in Libya.
For his part, the journalist and writer Abdullah Al-Kabeer said that America’s efforts do not seem to be successful so far, but it is not expected that American policy, with the elections coming up, will focus on what goes beyond the freezing of the situation in Libya.
In a statement to Arraed, Al-Kabeer expected that the United States would continue its current approach without fundamental changes, indicating that the installation of advanced air defense systems by Russian mercenaries would not have a significant impact. Because its destruction is available to US military capabilities if things develop into a limited military confrontation, he said.
Absence of a clear mechanism
Writer and analyst Ali Abu Zayd saw the difficulty of the success of the American efforts, given the absence of a clear mechanism to make Sirte and Al Jufra a demilitarized zone and a line of a ceasefire.
Abu Zayd, in a statement to Arraed, believed that the Turks have good experience with the Russians through their experience in Syria through the plan known as the de-escalation zones, but this requires time that the Trump administration, which wants to achieve success in foreign policy before next November, does not have, according to him.
Abu Zayd believes that the military escalation may be far away now in light of the massive mobilization, but the settlement will remain slow due to the international division, conflict of interests, and the fragility and impotence of local political actors.
So, will we see a clear road map to stop the military escalation in the central region ahead of the US elections next November, or will the parties supporting Haftar use this period to pass their agenda amid the US administration’s preoccupation with running the presidential elections?